© 2024
Summary
The year‑end crypto market has entered a pronounced consolidation phase. Bitcoin slipped below the $90,000 mark for the first time in seven months and entered a support zone around $93,000, while Ethereum retested the $3 000 threshold. Alt‑coin momentum continues to wane, with major tokens such as LINK, Stellar, and XLM falling by 3–6 %. Institutional appetite remains resilient, as evidenced by continued crypto investment by banks and a $800 M raise for Kraken. Regulatory developments – a Canadian stable‑coin policy package and U.S. OCC guidance on gas‑fee handling – are creating a more predictable environment for institutional flows. However, heightened volatility, the 5‑year low in Bitcoin hash‑rate, and the widespread Cloudflare outage expose ongoing technical and systemic risks. In the short term, a cautious, late‑July‑to‑August‐freeze of BTC near $93 000, with ETH potentially breaching $3 000, remains a key support area.
Prepared for institutional investors – GPT‑OSS 20B
| Asset | Recent Level | Key Technical Touch | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $91–93 k | Support below $90 k; bounced to $93 k on 18 Nov | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025), CoinDesk Markets (18 Nov 2025) |
| Ethereum (ETH) | ~$3,000 | Retest of $3,000; Mayer multiple dipped below 1 | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) |
| Chainlink (LINK) | ~$14 0 | 4 % rebound to $14 0 | CoinDesk Markets (18 Nov 2025) |
| Stellar (XLM) | ~$0.247 | 3.2 % slump | CoinDesk Markets (18 Nov 2025) |
| Hedera (HBAR) | ~$0.144 | 6 % drop | CoinDesk Markets (18 Nov 2025) |
While explicit market‑cap figures are absent from the RSS feeds, the context offers several proxies:
| Source | Insight |
|---|---|
| Cointelegraph | “Bitcoin sinks under $90K: BitMine, Bitwise execs tip bottom this week” – implies a high‑profile valuation discourse and potential inflows (Bitwise valuation cited at $20 B in CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025)) |
| CoinDesk | “Bitcoin Backwardation Returns… futures below spot” – suggests a contraction in the futures‑to‑spot spread, historically interpreted as a bearish sign but also a contrarian buy barometer. |
| Bloomberg Crypto | “Great Bitcoin Crash of 2025 has it lagging bonds, gold” – indicates a lagging cross‑asset performance, hinting at a low‑cap environment. |
Volume Trend
CoinDesk Markets notes “leveraged traders absorbed over $1 billion in liquidations” (18 Nov 2025), a clear sign of high‑risk‑exposure unwinding and a potential spike in daily volume.
| Tone | Indicator | Citation |
|---|---|---|
| Negative | “extreme fear” in BTC futures; 5‑year low in hash‑rate; 30 % fade in Bitcoin | CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) “Bitcoin back‑wardation returns”; CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) “Bitcoin hashprice falls to five‑year low” |
| Negative | “crypto carnage” and “4‑year cycle over?” headline → fear of a prolonged bear cycle | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) |
| Positive | Bitwise & BitMine executives pointing to a “generational opportunity” (Bitcoin bottom soon) | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) |
| Positive | “Institutions lean into crypto” despite Bitcoin slump | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) |
| Positive | Institutional new funding (Kraken $800 M raise, $20 B valuation) | CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) “Kraken Scores $800 M Raise” |
| Neutral | Cloudflare outage highlights infrastructure vulnerabilities; prompts discussion of DePIN | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) “Cloudflare outage hits multiple crypto websites”, CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) “Cloudflare Outage Sends Shockwaves Through Crypto” |
Overall Tone: Mixed but surface‑level, with a tilt toward caution owing to liquidity contractions and technical pullbacks, tempered by institutional persistence and new funding flows.
| Driver | Evidence | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Canadian Stable‑Coin Policy | “Canada Approves Budget … political push – new policy governing stablecoins” (Bloomberg Markets 18 Nov 2025) | Lowers compliance cost for stable‑coin issuers, encouraging funding into the sector. |
| U.S. OCC Guidance | “OCC Clarifies How Banks Can Handle Network ‘Gas Fees’” (CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025)) | Makes bank‑based crypto treasury operations clearer, supporting institutional size wallet adoption. |
| Political Pressure | “Sen. Warren Keeps Pressure on Trump Crypto Ties” (CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025)) | Signifies continued legislative scrutiny, potentially tightening or clarifying federal policy. |
| DePIN Momentum | Outage‑driven call for DePIN from Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) and CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) articles | Could lead to increased investment in decentralized infrastructure layers. |
| Driver | Evidence | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| DePIN | Cloudflare outage sparks debate; heightened push for edge‑network decentralization (Cointelegraph, CoinDesk) | Could accelerate adoption of distributed infrastructure, enhancing resilience. |
| AI–Crypto Synergies | Microsoft & Nvidia commit $15 B to Anthropic; Data‑driven risk models in DeFi (Bloomberg Tech articles) | Raises capital inflow into AI‑driven protocols, improving yield efficiency. |
| Stable‑coin Growth | Canadian stable‑coin policy; global stable‑coin interest trend (Bloomberg Crypto) | Strengthens the ecosystem for fiat‑backed digital assets. |
| Driver | Evidence | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Interest‑Rate Outlook | Bloomberg Markets “Traders Hedge Against Fed Cut” and “S&P 500 slide on AI, crypto jitters” (18 Nov 2025) | Tightening rates could feed demand for risk assets like BTC/ETH; expectations influence short‑term sentiment. |
| Commodity & Inflation | Gold steadied; BTC lagging bonds, gold (Bloomberg Crypto 18 Nov 2025) | Indicates a flight‑to‑safe assets, but BTC is still underperforming mainstream safe havens. |
| Diversified Asset Allocation | Institutional positions grow despite bullish sentiment on Bitcoin (Cointelegraph 18 Nov 2025) | Suggests a rebalancing away from extreme corrugation towards diversified strategies. |
| Category | Evidence | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory | Political pressure from Sen. Warren; Canadian policy changes; OCC clarifications | Delays, restrictions, or increased compliance costs could curtail asset inflows. |
| Volatility | BTC fell 30 % within months; ETH and alt‑coins retraced 4–6 %; $1 B liquidations (CoinDesk 18 Nov 2025) | Significant capital erosion for leveraged or retail investors; systemic stress on exchanges. |
| Technical | Cloudflare outage disabling multiple crypto platforms (Cointelegraph 18 Nov 2025; CoinDesk 18 Nov 2025) | Platform shutdowns amplify liquidity shortages and loss of confidence. |
| Security | Broader lack of data on hacking or smart‑contract exploits in feeds | Potential for large‑scale breaches, especially in DeFi protocols. |
| Liquidity | Sovereign or large‑wallet withdraws (e.g., BlackRock ETF outflow $1.26 B) – CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) | Entrench market softness, making support levels testable. |
| Asset / Sector | Rationale | Data Point |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Bottom‑zone rebound at $93 k; institutions claim a "generational opportunity" | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025); CoinDesk “Bitcoin back‑wardation” |
| Ethereum (ETH) | Approach to $3 000 buy‑zone; low liquidity clusters | Cointelegraph (18 Nov 2025) |
| Chainlink (LINK) | 4 % rebound to $14 0; ongoing AI/Oracle demand | CoinDesk Markets (18 Nov 2025) |
| DePIN and edge‑infrastructure | Cloudflare outage increased appetite; strategic importance | Cointelegraph & CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) |
| Institution‑level Crypto Infrastructure | Kraken valuation $20 B after $200 M Citadel raise; supports backend ecosystem | CoinDesk (18 Nov 2025) |
| Stable‑coins | Canadian stable‑coin policy, increased institutional fiat‑crypto bridges | Bloomberg Markets (18 Nov 2025) |
| NFT-linked tokenised assets | HSBC & Société Générale tokenised bonds highlight new asset flows | Bloomberg Tech (18 Nov 2025) |
Approach
Short‑term (~3–6 months): Bitcoin appears to have found a support band around $93 k after testing sub‑$90 k; Ethereum is poised to breach the $3 000 threshold. Alt‑coins remain in consolidation, though certain supply‑demand divergences (LINK’s rebound, stable‑coin policies) may catalyse niche gains. Institutional flows continue despite bearish sentiment, pointing to confidence in fundamental valuation scales rather than a short‑term rally chase.
Longer‑term (~12–18 months): Regulatory clarity—especially around stable‑coins and DePIN—could unlock broader institutional participation. Technological convergence (AI, edge‑sequencing) may underpin higher yields and security enhancements. However, persistent volatility, potential further ETF outflows, and the looming possibility of an earnings‐cycle slowdown around major tech and crypto infrastructure firms leave upside below $110 k uncertain.
Prognosis: A gradual, capped recovery is likely, with BTC stabilising around $98–$110 k and ETH around $3,200–$3,500, contingent on a controlled rate‑cut path and continued institutional commitment.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions should be made after conducting thorough due diligence and consulting with qualified financial advisors. The reader assumes full responsibility for any investment decisions made based on this information.